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February 04 2012
Gillmor Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Kevin Marks, John Taschek, and Steve Gillmor — trembled in the face of Facebook's IPO and all-out war on the open Web, also known as Google. Me, I go back to Bill Gates during the DOJ deposition when he basically said we don't need no steenkin' breakup when Google will come along and be invented. @kevinmarks makes a good college (fitting) try of defending the open schmopen set, while none of us seem to notice Social Spring just keeps on rolling over conventional wisdom. Me, I'm pretty jacked up waiting for what this means for Twitter. Go Giants!
December 31 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — John Borthwick, Robert Scoble, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — wound up the Old Year and previewed the next one. In fact, we are already well into Social Spring, what with SOPA, Go Daddy, the media scramble, Louis C.K. and the $5 download, Spotify and the independents, Apple AlmostTV, Microsoft irrelevancy, and the end of email.
December 17 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Kevin Marks, John Taschek, and Steve Gillmor — celebrate the freeing of Heather Harde, the health of realtime, the obsolescence of Office, and the gamification of deep enterprise apps. It never ceases to amaze how some people rescue defeat from the jaws of victory, but Techcrunch's loss of its business leader is our gain. As @scobleizer shows on his undulating realtime screens, Techcrunch past present and future continues to be at the bleeding edge of the social wave. Just as Microsoft continues to box itself into an innovation-free corner and give disruptive energy room to thrive, so too does AOL watch value flow from editorial through the technologies it uncrunched and onto the social mobile platform. As the crowd of another era shouted, the whole world is watching. The revolution will be streamed.
October 15 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Gabe Rivera, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — marked a watershed moment in the history of realtime. When @gaberivera posted a summary Tweet rolling up the WSJ-induced VC semi-panic, he bookmarked a discussion that started and largely finished not in the blogosphere but on Twitter. By the time the swarm slowed down, it was decorated by numerous blog posts including one from the Dean of the Fully Disclosed, Fred Wilson. We'll look back on this thread as the moment when 140 characters provided the Vitamin B12 shot that jumpstarted the move toward prioritization of the Push Notification window. @stevegillmor, @gaberivera, @scobleizer, @jtaschek, @kevinmarks
October 02 2011
abbeyroad
Driving on the left side stretches the muscles, especially including the one in your head. When Larry Page named Google as Google’s biggest problem, he was talking as a leader not just of the search giant but of the whole industry. Anticipating the first Apple event since Steve Jobs stepped down as CEO, it feels good to see others step up to the task. It’s not that any one of these leaders will fill that intuitive role. Jeff Bezos did it this week with his stunning price point, cloud browser, and clicks and mortar media streaming business. He’s not the only one, and neither is Marc Zuckerberg. But each in their own way are together shaping not just the technology business but the way we work together. And the answers are not easy or obvious.
October 01 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Danny Sullivan, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — lauded Amazon's entry into the mobile media universe with the Fire. We were unanimous in our praise for the impact the device will have on the tablet scene, with a price within reach of a whole new audience that has found the iPad resistable and Android tablets even less or more, whichever is less. Whether the move proves a win or a challenge to Google depends on your perspective about Android. For some (@dannysullivan, @jtaschek, @scobleizer, @kevinmarks) it augurs good times for Android. For others (@stevegillmor) it puts significant pressure on Google to minimize the difference between Android open source and Android +. For all of us, it means significant challenge to a number of different strategies and market force pressure to make streaming the new Web OS.
September 24 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang — John Borthwick, Robert Scoble, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — talked Facebook, Spotify, Netflix, Twitter, and, oh what was that oh yes, Google+. In a post-Arrington unpaid blogger world, it seems likely the new alignments suggested by the Facebook announcements will quickly migrate across the social spectrum. Soon we may see Spotify play the role of ABC to iCloud's Disney, which in fact is already the case. In turn, smaller producers such as turntable.fm will take the role of satellite producers in much the same way Dick Wolf and the CSI producers orbit NBC and CBS respectively. Where Facebook, Twitter, and G+ stand is TBD.
September 03 2011
Gillmore Gang test pattern
The Gillmor Gang -— Robert Scoble, Dan Farber, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — calmed down after a week of Dreamforce, the annual salesforce.com user conference. As the editorial independence of TechCrunch is questioned, let us be clear that Dan Farber is editor in chief of CBSNewsOnline, Robert Scoble is Chief Scobleizer Officer of Rackspace, and the rest of us are Salesforce.com employees. Let me be clear that I support and appreciate Michael Arrington and his evolution for a very simple reason, namely that the horse he rode in on is the very reason why TechCrunch exists and is so valued.
August 06 2011
Gillmor Gang 8.6.11 (TCTV)
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Danny Sullivan, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — talked patents and PR, Spotify, and everything except Google+ for the first time in weeks. It’s not that G+ has jumped the shark; in fact, it is the shark on which realtime video streaming will emerge when YouTube finally goes live. It’s a race with iCloud to get there, with AirPlay-enabled Spotify stoking the fire in the near term.
Social signals are gaining value as feature sets and hardware mature, as we harvest our laboriously-created investments in individual and virtual spheres of influence. For the Gang’s part, we’re going to begin broadcasting live from and to the iPad as events warrant it, starting with a trip to the heart of the emerging Social Enterprise at EvolutionCRM in New York next week.
@Mention Cloud: @stevegillmor @scobleizer @dannysullivan @kevinmarks @jtaschek @borthwick
July 31 2011
Social Broadcast Network
Every day I try and do the media rounds to see what’s happening. The Journal, the Times, the Techcrunch, and the Twitter. Twitter is consumed via a number of aggregators that I rotate, mostly settling for News.Me and the Media something newsletter that the guy from MySpace produces.
Techmeme gets my votes about once a day, in the following order: upper right hand corner for the latest breaking, lower right hand corner to see what’s falling off the edge, then straight to the middle clump where two or three stories reside if anything’s really jumping. I’ve usually read the top in the other venues by then.
Google+ is not on this list, yet. Mostly because I haven’t got a handle on its core value as a news trigger. If you’re Scoble, the value is obvious as he is now demonstrating by turning it into his blog. But sooner or later the service will have to decide what it wants to be when it grows up — a conversation hub with no tools for rapid synthesis of knowledge, a social graph to challenge Twitter (it’s getting there fast), or some other thing perhaps more substantial than currently appreciated, like a stalking horse for YouTube live streaming aka the social broadcast network.
SBN we’ll call it has all the earmarks of a Gmail beta operation. Launching it on top of Hangouts with their limited reach even if daisy chained will not scare the networks until google flips the bits around and couples live streams with API access to embedded comment streams like the ones we use on Gillmor Gang sessions from the Friendfeed API. 10 Hangouters is more than enough in the context of a live chat of hundreds, and the API can be broadened to allow concentric groups to nominate or be given the microphone from a joint console.
This will put pressure on Google to provide a way in for the Tweet stream, since aggregators like Seesmic and others will have the same API access and an incentive to merge the multiple social networks. Facebook will be in the odd role of having little to offer here, what with YouTube’s huge clout in video marketshare. The Skype deal is a longer term strategy for climbing into a classic 3 or 4 network clump, with Apple/Twitter bargaining access to AirPlay all the more important.
G+ project manager Bradley Horowitz buttonholed me at the TechCrunch August Capital party to say he enjoyed this week’s Gillmor Gang live cast earlier that afternoon. The team’s proactive approach to interacting with field test users is good politics, but it also underlines the need to respond to criticisms such as Scoble’s laments about a buggy and crash prone iPhone client. If SBN is a not so hidden priority for Google (especially in the wake of Google TV’s Wave/Buzz like performance) then the kinds of viral crowds live streaming will invite will make fixing the Scoble-sized instability on iOS mandatory.
The last thing G+ needs is to go directly against Twitter (and Apple) in an Android/iOS shootout. For one, it blows a huge hole in the G+ social graph while it is still forming. For another, given Facebook’s Microsoft-induced stupidity about an iPad client, what part of 90% share of the tablet market do you want to lose. The only thing G+ HTML 5 on the iPad has going for it is that it sucks less that HTML 5 on the iPhone. SBN makes iPad native more likely.
The last few weeks in Washington make it clear that both parties have decided on waging the political campaign in realtime via social. Live casting blends just as well today with party fundraising if not more so than when Obama ran the table starting early with the Iowa caucuses. The Republicans have clearly understood the need to frame their agenda in a way that promotes realtime tracking of what is now a Twitter news cycle. The cable networks may offer round the clock coverage, but even political junkies like myself tune in once Twitter alerts hit the push notification bus.
CNN jumped out ahead last week with the ability to broadcast live to the iPad if users already subscribed to Comcast or several other cable or satellite services. Once iOS 5 hits with its notification hub, we should be able to move from a push notification directly into the cooperating video stream. SBN can take advantage of the same opportunity in September, but they need to convince Horowitz and Gundotra to put some engineering cycles into pulling Twitter alerts not only from iOS but from the other platforms.
Scoble doesn’t like the idea of a Friendfeed-like aggregation of the Twitter stream, but that speaks more to the lack of filtering tools in G+ than anything more fundamental. And the firestorm over businesses not having first class citizenship would be significantly neutralized while we wait if we could push brand stories into our G+ streams to seed the live cast model. Frankly, this is going to happen sooner than later, and I vote for sooner so that the resulting feedback loop will prompt Twitter to accelerate its live streaming and Tracking to feed the push notification network. I’ll call that PNN.
July 30 2011
July 24 2011
The revolution will not be televised
Seems like the Good Old Days are here again as Google+ invites continue to pile up in email. Email is that Y2K technology that jumped the shark in the middle of the decade, back when Twitter introduced realtime direct messages. How little has changed since then is why the blogs are still choked with Google+ analysis or as it can be called: the Scoble Delta. That’s the time between when Robert declares his complete absorption in a social media platform and or when he changes his mind.
Robert has a real problem with Google+. It’s early days so he can ignore the vast wasteland of discussion other than about the platform itself. Sure, there are lotsa pictures and maybe some videos and citations of interesting articles (actually not really on the citation front). But mostly the nonPlus conversation is tire kicking, pretending that there’s a real social graph on which to layer a matrix of valuable information.
Robert’s problem is that he’s bought into the idea of Circles without being totally sure that they’re something more than Twitter Lists. Already there are calls for ways of pulling Lists over from Twitter. I’ve never thought Lists were useful, certainly not given the time required to assemble them. Circles are easier to manage, at least so far, but I’ve made them as painless as possible by only using two of them, Family which I’ve filled up, and Friends which are everybody else. That’s on the outgoing side.
On the incoming side, Circles have been an annoyance more than anything. I can appreciate them as an organizing principle for others, putting people into bins where the signal to noise is tuned somewhat. But my experience of them ranges from PR broadcasting to so-called limited conversations that I can only guess at the participants. One of those came from a colleague at Salesforce where I could ascertain the first twenty or so names followed by a mysterious 109 others. Perhaps this is a result of using the iPad Safari and not the standard browser UI, but I still approach such an interchange with confusion.
In effect, the Circle, whose name I cannot see, is a group invitation to discuss a topic without understanding the purpose or rationale of its members. There is work just to get to that level of confusion. I have to rely on the judgement of my colleague (I do) but have no insight into some of whom else I’m presumably talking with. I am comfortable with a clear understanding of who I’m communicating with, which is why I write here, in private to my colleagues on Chatter, and more constrained in groups both open and private.
Open Chatter groups still let me know who’s joined, so there’s a sense of why people are there based on interest, job responsibility, and serendipity. But you can’t join a Circle, only create it or add people in the outgoing direction. At least I think so, which is about the same as being so. The net result is the lack of an understanding of the group’s dynamic, except at the level of those who overtly participate. Much is made of engagement in these media, but the role of the lurker is not clear in Plus.
None of this precludes the new platform from being successful; there are lots of people who look for these kinds of streams to do the work of synthesizing what’s going on at any one moment or day. In fact, there have and will be successes in the world of publishing for just that reason, as we’ve seen with Howard Stern on Sirius and cross-selling recommendations on Amazon. Transmitting social signals, brands develop. Receiving them, different story. Without a clear feedback loop, what are the consequences of communicating?
The Public setting has no such imbalance: I know that anybody can read it once they’re on the network. What I say lives in the context of that knowledge of the environment. Some think of this as limiting, diluting what is said to avoid mistakes in protocol or behavior. I think it’s freeing, navigating me toward communicating to a broad range of listeners with a multifaceted approach that splits the differences as effectively as possible. It’s an art not a science, and I certainly fail all too much of the time. But I’d rather fail at this goal than succeed at others.
I’m not alone in this equation. My Friends Circle is the latest, freshest update of the Art of Lurking. Not the stream, which continues to be a shadow of Twitter’s citation engine with few tools to push prioritized messages forward. I’m sure things will improve, but for now the main value is an up to date organic combination of my usual suspects and those who’ve signaled me. Since I’ve published almost nothing to this point, I attribute most of the Circlings to a cascading outward of mining the circles of those who expect something of value from me and my citations. This social graph has unique characteristics, even though right now I can only contribute to building it, not using it.
What I’m really closing in on here is not signal to noise but a third vector, the special context that comes from the missing feedback loop in Plus. To illustrate it, I’ll bring up a seeming wild card, Spotify, which I fell in love with over the weekend after receiving a complementary invite. I might have played with it in the freemium edition, but getting a chance to experience it full bore was a gift I much appreciate. In a few minutes I was diving into the past, like the swooping cable car of the last Harry Potter as I tumbled through my favorite haunts, in realtime, streaming, on demand, live.
I sampled records I only knew about, like the remixed stripped down version of John and Yoko’s Double Fantasy. It’s not that I could listen for free, or for a subscription price, but that I could choose to jump and return, compare and contrast, all without the notion of owning the material. Rather, experiencing it, exploring it. Like a time machine, jumping from early to late, from Steely Dan’s golden age to Donald Fagen’s solo trilogy. Sampling the third one, released 5 years ago and now in retrospect fitting in with the group’s comeback records and even the live one they produced while still “retired.”
This might not resonate for you, but to have this world that once meant so much suddenly returned for the price of a Netflix subscription is stunning in its implications. Not just because it offers the student and the scholar the opportunity to live inside these grooves, but because it implies the possibility to escape the confines of the atrophied and squandered music “business” of the last decades. The opportunity to inspire the material that lives in this new home, replete with Hangouts and conversation and turntable.fm and Track 9 and 3/4.
That’s what’s so important about Plus and Circles: the idea that this thing will live and expand, or whatever it does, not in a winner take all game but in a back and forth that will produce the best of us, the thing we call innovation, the thing we know when we see it or even when it just comes close. I can tell you what the landmarks will be, too. When Spotify gets AirPlay support or at least an explanation of how it could work reliably, or when iCloud does it itself. When G+ gets Track so we can assemble our own filtered Circles, which means Twitter will.
Robert’s problem is the one he loves to solve, where a group forms that can uniquely navigate in this powerful world of the cloud. That group, by the way, is us. When we delight ourselves, things have changed for the better. Plus in its early form seems on the cusp of greatness, as all networks appear when they find their voice. What will be more interesting is what it triggers around it as it grows, as we learn what it’s like once again to touch the sky.
Don’t let the fear mongers get you, that it’s not worth giving up your identity for a bunch of shiny objects. As the services absorb all our data, they make it all the more important to create the subtle signals that define who we are together. How thousands of birds fly in formation, swerving and diving and reversing direction. It can be hard to ignore such a suggestion of the existence of forces larger than we are, of the power of intuition, the structure of the expression encapsulated in a moment of an eyebrow, the economy of the laugh that makes you cry in relief. Stop thrilling us, we say but don’t mean.
Waking up, the news of Amy Winehouse chimed from Twitter and tormented the G+ newbies. Last night on the iPhone, I couldn’t figure out how to keep Spotify playing when I switched apps. But unlike G+ which is blocked on the iPad, I could run the iPhone version of Spotify and lo and behold it worked. I surfed the sad news and the glib commentary as she sang in the background. I’d never listened much before, but now that she was gone the tracks shimmered in the luck we have left of her talent.
It’s times like these I feel lucky to be born in this age of discovery. In the rush to codify the battles of the day, we miss the triumph of ingenuity of the lurker, the loser, the strip mining of the user if those notions are to be believed. Even in the most secure of streams, there is no post, comment, like, @mention, or citation that doesn’t represent a gift rather than a proffer to the customer. We learn by watching the river flow, missing the boat, daydreaming, shutting down for the night, slapping cold water on the needy. The revolution will not be televised. No, no, no.
July 23 2011
Gillmor Gang 7.23.11 (TCTV)
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Andrew Keen, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — convened for yet another G+ conversation. This one, however, was noted for its evenhandedness as @ajkeen and @scobleizer traded social blows over the new Google service. As someone in the Friendfeed chat on the livecast noted, @stevegillmor seems surprisingly positive about the new service. As Keen observed, that’s because I think the new service is Friendfeed revisited.
Of course, it is. But it’s also Twitter without the 140 character limit, Facebook without the unseen authority algorithm, and the Gillmor Gang without a human director (Hangouts). @kevinmarks says it a little differently, seeing G+ growth gaining on Club Penguin. And that’s the fundamental reason Google has a winner, by underlining the best parts of each of these services and floating all boats on a rising tide.
July 10 2011
Soap Media
Oh lord won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz. That’s how I feel about the strange trip we’re on with our social studies. Used to be that I could just sit back and wish for a Mickey Mantle home run, and sure enough, it would be there. The powerful compact swing generating an arc unlike any other, still rising as it cleared the outfield wall.
At some basic level we’re trying to find a home we can invest in. The social networking landscape seems to be shaken by Google’s new network product, but in a way it’s become more solidified. The monolith, Facebook, remains undamaged. The experiment, Twitter, no less unsure about what it is but confident of its value. What’s left, Microsoft.
It’s way early to handicap anything along the scale of winners and losers, but many things are already obvious. Plus has conquered the media, but what of it? Unlike Apple, which changed the media with the iPad, Google has slapped a fresh coat of paint on the social chat room that was Friendfeed and provided a reasonably safe bet that the work we put in will be accessible for some substantial time to come. Worth investing in the stream of notifications as we remodel our graphs one more time.
Without the aggregation of citations, Plus is more an interactive manual for itself than anything disruptive. Google has the time and motivation to get everyone in their seats before starting the game, and we’re comfortable enough waiting while we check our old familiar streams to see what we’re missing. This time around, we’re dealing with a platform that won’t collapse when Track is turned on. The question is when, not if.
Twitter has already voted on this question by shutting down its firehose to Google Realtime Search. Basically, no way you get Track handed to you on a platter, just like no way we’re for sale. At stake: Twitter’s social graph and how it can be used to personalize the content stream. All the talk of overlapping Circles on Plus speaks to the same problem, how to derive signal on information other than how cool Plus is.
Does Twitter have a price at which it caves? Not really. The second such a price is established, the overall value of the entire market segment collapses. Let’s say Google acquires Track and lets us bind our content stream to Plus identity with one click. Suddenly Facebook (and Microsoft) have a huge problem, as we use Circles to obsolete the Facebook personal graph while selling our media preferences to the highest bidder.
So Facebook counters with a bigger number, which would be rejected because of Facebook’s scale. Back and forth, to the point where the numbers would be so far out of whack that only Microsoft could afford them and to what end? Whoever closes that deal loses an AOL/TimeWarner chunk of its value. In effect, Twitter would be acquiring a big chunk of either company that would evaporate on close. And what would they do if the deal was all cash? Nothing to buy into except the loser of the auction.
More likely, Google will continue to be successful at building out its alternate identity graph, starting with the (social) media and moving into the content aggregation space with brands. An interesting test case will be what happens with the All My Children/One Life To Live deal, where the two soaps are moving to the iPad platform. How they will monetize this with a projecting $50 million in production costs depends on just the kind of Track or @Mention targeting that Apple just announced with, wait for it, Twitter in iOS 5.
Coming as it does just in time for the new fall season, soap media may turn out to be the reason Twitter stays independent. With Netflix as the new upfronts, producers will launch on iPad and bankroll production with the streaming afterlife. It’s not coincidental that ABC retained the IP for the series, given Steve Jobs’s huge stake in the network. It also suggests broadcast will be used to launch shows and push them through the new soap media pipeline via iPad and AirPlay.
As long as Google keeps Plus open and builds content aggregation traffic through API connectors, the quality of the network will help unbundle Facebook identity. Plus Track will encourage Twitter to syndicate its data, and Facebook to emulate Circles, Hangouts, and even Track. Instead of puncturing the bubble, Plus is buying enough time for the social media networks to transition to the new dynamics of Soap Media.
July 09 2011
Gillmor Gang 7.09.11 (TCTV)
The Gillmor Gang — Michael Arrington, Dan Farber, Robert Scoble, and Steve Gillmor — enjoyed @scobleizer’s FaceTime tour of Florida’s abandoned Kennedy Space Center in the aftermath of the last shuttle launch. The countdown clock sat frozen amid a sea of media trailers and the huge Twitter Live Assembly building. No, wait; that was where FriendFeed stood until Google + was launched last week.
Google + should buy Twitter, suggested @arrington from his retirement center in the Pacific NorthWest. Having immediately shut down its live stream to Google the day after Plus went public, it seems unlikely Jack and Dick (and Ev and Alice for that matter) are any closer to selling. As the ghost of Walter Cronkite peered down from the “permanent” CBS News bunker, CBSNewsOnline editor in chief @dbfarber schooled @arrington on the news of the day. We all got a little older. And that’s the way it was.
July 04 2011
Social Studies
Opinions about Google’s new social initiative seem to be slowing down. The overall consensus is that Google has done some good work in avoiding where they have dropped the ball in previous efforts. Also some good work in creating a way to rapidly navigate through a series of people views. And a wonderful video tool that recalls the early days when we all gathered around campfires to shoot the breeze.
The early threads are predictably self-referential, just as they have been for each new startup service at this point in the cycle. With Twitter, I lurked for months until the realtime communications bus provided an opening for Friendfeed. Still in that phase with Foursquare, which joins other iOS apps on the push notification bus as what effectively is one service to me. Facebook is mostly an email notification service
Tracking the Google rollout has been surprisingly easy with Twitter. I keep thinking there are some hidden wells of information in the Circles comment stream, but for the most part the value remains at the post or share level. Techmeme absorbed the punch by Saturday night of the holiday weekend. Some conclusions based on this early data:
- Hangouts will be successful but immediately cloned by Facebook + Skype this week. This will drive the price close to zero, with advertising and gamification providing the revenue support for consumer services.
- Google will have to bite the bullet and open up to iOS. Blaming the AppStore will work only until the service expands beyond the first wave; after that an HTML 5 version will have to suffice for all but push notifications. With iOS 5 shipping in two months, no time to play Android marketing games.
- Google has ironically put themselves in the position of being a giant beta test for Microsoft to ponder as they try and finesse the collapse of Office. Much to be gleaned from Google’s tip-toeing around Gmail and its failure to integrate social, but Microsoft won’t listen.
- Twitter retains control of the @mention cloud, which has no parallel implementation in Circles besides its use of the syntax. As Ray Wang asks, where’s the Venn diagram tool?
- Where is the developer incentive to build on top of this? Android, of course, but if so much of the API strategy is yet to be obvious then why did they ship this now instead of waiting?
- To answer the last question, because apparently Google sees some competitive reason, or to put it another way, weakness in its roadmap. No response to iTunes Match, Apple TV/AirPlay, Turntable, iPad, no-Flash momentum, FaceTime in Hangouts, etc. Meanwhile cross-mobile video chat is showing up in the AppStore.
- Why cut out the lion’s share of the tablet market when it’s the single biggest reason people are perceiving any kind of jump ball in social? If Larry Page is all over Circles et al then who’s minding the ChromeOS store? If 25% of bonuses are tied to social, how do the other 75% break down?
- Maybe 25% Android, 25% search, 15% Apps, and 10% Chrome. Probably sustainable while riding the social wave, but where is the disruptive energy flowing? Don’t forget that Gmail came out of an off-search pool of talent and resources. Soon we’ll be able to calculate the opportunity cost of this effort.
- Facebook and Twitter wouldn’t mind email going away, but Microsoft and Google would. Not good to have these teammates.
- I never used Twitter lists. I haven’t segmented Facebook into friend lists either. But even less do I want to microcast to segmented Circles. I enjoy testing the boundaries of what people will tolerate in a single stream, as you can certainly see on Techcrunch comments here. Something drove the adoption on Twitter not just in spite of 140 characters and a public stream but because of what kinds of streams it rewarded.
I’ve tried to avoid the use of the project’s name until now as an exercise in how to think about its elements. I’ve added people to just one Circle, Friends, in order to prepare for the moment when the signal to noise crosses the threshold where Twitter required new filter structures. With little incentive to post Sparks searches and fragmentation of sharing internal threads, I’m somewhat at the mercy of those who like the idea of explicitly controlling who reads what.
Yet I come out of the Plus underbrush with a good feeling about what Google has done for itself and its users. We’re a long way from the passion of the early days, the Fail Whale and the privacy rollbacks of Facebook, even the idea of winners and losers. Google + seems to understand in its DNA that it will thrive based on value, not on destruction of competitors’ perceived weakness. While some short term advantage may be gained from favoring the Google platform, the broader challenge is to expand the value of the entire realtime platform. I’m optimistic this will happen as driven by our adoption of the broader disruption.
July 02 2011
Gillmor Gang 7.2.11 (TCTV)
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, John Borthwick, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — joined the Circle Game as channelled by Joni Mitchell and Tom Rush. Google + seems to be a hit, which means it is soon to reach the critical mass where all social software must graduate from high school to beyond. For now, the service appears like a broader reimplementation of Friendfeed, which some of us felt was truncated not by the users but by the Facebook acquisition. In other words, for some that reinvention is a good thing.
For @borthwick, the project is a substantial undertaking for a company we’ve been trivializing in recent months along with its stock price. For @scobleizer, it means the battle between reach and rich, this time in social circles as Google defines graphs. For @kevinmarks, plenty of work ahead but a strong effort. For @stevegillmor, well, you’ll have to watch the show. But a hint: +1s to Twitter, FaceTime, and whoever makes new mistakes fast.
June 25 2011
Gillmor Gang 6.25.11
The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, Phil Windley, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — celebrated the news that apps are moving past web sites as the default architecture of the planet. I say celebrate because I think the trend is one that will continue, and even accelerate, as iOS notifications make interoperation between apps more useful. In the process, as @windley notes, notifications and the processes that are triggered, become the focal point of what used to be known as the operating system.
What that means for Windows is cloudy at the moment, pun intended. Though many analysts suggest Windows Phone 7 will gain significant penetration alongside iOS and Android, it will only be possible should important apps drive that adoption. @scobleizer is dubious, and @kevinmarks suggests the locus of power in notification has moved away from OS to Facebook and Twitter. @stevegillmor has his money on @mentions, where social and Web meet in a native wrapper too tasty to ignore.
June 07 2011
Gillmor Gang 6.7.11 (TCTV)
The Gillmor Gang — John Borthwick, Robert Scoble, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — were rendered iCloudy in the aftermath of Steve Jobs’ WWDC announcements. Even stalwart Google fanboys Taschek and Marks found it difficult to withstand the halo surrounding Apple’s aggressive move to the Cloud and iOS as the dominant platform moving forward. Betaworks’ John Borthwick applauded the Twitter integration and just about everything about iCloud’s new grip on the music business.
You’d expect Robert Scoble’s enthusiasm for iOS/X in comparison to Microsoft’s Windows 8 adoption of ZunePhone UI, but the highlight of a day of highlights was the just one more teeny little thing coup de grace of iTunes Match. In a single flick of the lighter, Apple gave us the tiny nudge we needed to erase music’s years of isolation from the digital age. At 256K and cord-less synching, Mobile Me went from $99 to $25 and all the records you can eat.
June 05 2011
Making Time
Why Netflix rocks is the same reason that tomorrow’s iCloud announcements will rock. It’s not about the technology, it’s because of the technology that counts. You can feel it if you make the time to. Making time means what?
One evening last week we sat at the bar downstairs at 1 Market after a long workday. John Taschek and several others were extolling the virtues, no, the imperatives of motorcycle ownership. You know, the usual keep the motor running head on down the highway testosterone. The kind of stuff Gary Busey still can’t get out of his head no matter how much he resists wearing a helmet. Gary, you’re fired.
But hiding in the camaraderie was a simple truth, that the 15 minute commute into the office on his BMW gives Taschek the time to think. And what we’re going to hear tomorrow is the result of a lot of time to think. And why Microsoft hasn’t figured out how to make that time.
iCloud is a state of mind Apple has been working toward for many moons now. Not so much the OK now we get cloud computing kind of mind set, but the OK now we are ready to apply our methodology toward the sweet spot of our competitors kind of value proposition. You hate iTunes and the stupid sync cable? OK, it’s gone. You feel locked in to the Apple restrictions on what you can do when you want to do it? OK now they’re removed. You want a real bit rate, a real screen, a real sense of ownership again?
These are big promises to deliver on, but from the look of things, we’re about to get them. If we read this right, for starters we’re going to get full quality streaming of the music of our times. For those of us who grew up not so much listening to music as living it, the biggest inhibitor to downloading music was the lack of full quality, the state of whatever art we are at. The Apple codec is excellent, but you could only get that by buying the CD and ripping it. A good compromise between hard drive consumption and quality, nonetheless it still sucked given the fact that my record store has devolved to Starbucks.
The alternative, downloading from iTunes, or worse from Amazon, is capitulation: 128 or whatever pseudo quality iTunes is or Amazon’s MP3. Give me a break with MP3. It’s like putting auto-tune on Aretha. The very thing you can’t quantify is the stuff we’ve been wanting to pay for ever since Napster. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, that’s OK, but trust me, up until maybe tomorrow I’ve only bought the iTunes thing out of necessity.
Let’s say for grins that tomorrow iCloud performs a checksum on our files on disk and gives us a stream version at full quality. If we’ve bought the CD for its liner notes, it gives us the liner notes on the iPad, not just the Mac like the Hendrix Anthology. If I’ve bought the latest Neil Young record on iTunes because there are no record stores left on Sunday or any other day, let me pay the iCloud freight to upgrade to the real deal. Let’s say the algorithm is that if I’m willing to give you access to my credit card on a monthly subscription basis, I’m trustable enough to get access to the real product, not the one with the digital condom desensitivity layer.
Seems like a minor nit pick to you? Much ado about nothing, this 60′s post yuppie yearning for the good old days. Whatever, when an artist like Lady Gaga or the Black Keys taps into what used to be called show business at a meaningful soulful level, the resultant force has only recently been matched by social media. Just what do you think Twitter is all about? What I had for breakfast? No, the context of our times. We live, we die. What happens in between?
This sense of ownership I mentioned, it’s the iceberg just below the water line. The new sense of owning is what the Cloud is all about, the understanding that to the best of our abilities, our access to who and why we are will remain constant. I’ve long since abandoned the notion that because I have something stored on a hard drive or a disk, I own it. In fact, all I own is an object for which the reader has vanished, or the media has corrupted, or the basement has flooded. Netflix is now my basement, cool and safe and shareable.
What I really want is something I can count on, and iterate on, and share with my world, and be shared with. I think it’s very possible that what Steve Jobs will show tomorrow has that same goal in mind. He grew up loving Dylan and the Beatles. And he delivered them, or almost. Unlocking the last foot, the bits, that is something really big. If he turns Apple TV into the flagship of the digital revolution, I’ll gladly pay the freight. And for those who say they don’t want an Apple-owned world, this will open the door for Google as it has with Android. Who knows, even Microsoft may be able to get a piece of the action.
But for Microsoft to be more than an afterthought, they have to make the time to think. Think about what we want and need to live our lives to the fullest. If that means think about a world without Windows in order to understand what we want, that’s a tough one. The usual logic about Windows, or Office for that matter, is that 97% of the world’s on it so it’s not going away. But if you own an iPad, 100% of Windows and Office has gone away. As I started to write this, Pages pushed an update with the new document button replaced by a + sign which when clicked gave me a bunch of iCloudy-looking choices. IDisk?
In the World of iPad, MobileMe is like saying I’ll have a slice of pizza pie. Does that mean two slices? The iPad is MobileMe, and MobileYou too. It’s become for the most part the place where I make time to think. Spare me the Apple fanboy jibes; I’m a fan of big visions that deliver. Besides, something about what’s coming tomorrow makes me think this will turn out well for more than just Apple. It goes back to Netflix and our search for something to watch on a weekend night when the kids are asleep or, in the case of the teenager, taking care not to party too hard.
So we’ve seen all the stupid romcoms and learned that theCuban Missile crisis was actually resolved by bands of warring mutant superheroes. Now I’m on Netflix trolling New Releases, deep in the More button view. If you want to truly grok the depths of mediocrity of Hollywood, go there with me. And then salvation In the strange form of the Scottish guy who appears after Letterman, a Craig Ferguson special shorn of the oh la las and innuendo that are required on broadcast television, and replete with all the funky obscenity and drug references of his dissipated youth. In short, the real full quality stand up of a very funny guy. And as we laughed and cringed at his stroll through our not so secret inner sanctum, he reminded me of what is possible when we put our minds to it. Born in the mix of mediocrity and limitations, carrier lock down and conformity masquerading as 50′s sensibility.
It may seem like a small thing, a foul-mouthed talk show host breaking free for a moment on a streaming connection. But that’s the stuff from which great things came, the Goon Shows from the halls of the straitlaced BBC, your 19th Nervous Breakdown, Jeff Beck’s A Day in the Life at the Rolling Stone Anniversary Concerts, Scoble’s photo on the Edwards campaign plane, the Dylan outakes, the iCloud. It’s an alternate show business that will inevitably swallow the current version and return us to the epicenter of the creative renaissance we are so lucky in which to be born.
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